Sloppy’s Surprises: Texas nosedives and no one wants to win the ACC

Well, as predicted, some of the undefeateds did get spooked this Halloween weekend. I reversed on Utah after finding out Air Force was without their leading rusher due to injury. Otherwise they would have gone down too, only escaping by 5 points as it was. Michigan State looked like solid un-top 25 material. I mean, for a team that beat Wisconsin, the same Badgers who last week walked into Iowa and won, you would think the Spartans had something in the tank. Nope. This looked like Iowa executing their plan against a pathetic FCS school. Honestly. It was terrible. Missouri wasn’t much better. The Cornhuskers scored on their first play, then again on their 5th play or something. I mean, these guys were terrible. Good to see them drop from the ranks.

Which means two things: Oregon and Auburn are on a collision course for the BCS championship and TCU and Boise State are on another collision course for each other in the other BCS bowl game in Glendale. Sad but true, you know that’s how it will play out if we have 4 undefeateds at the end of the year. Substitute Utah for TCU depending on how next week goes.

But still, Oregon has to deal with Arizona, Cal and Oregon State. Auburn has to deal with Georgia, Alabama and if they beat Alabama, whoever wins the SEC east. There’s a good chance neither of these guys ends up undefeated. Oh the joy if only Boise State and TCU are undefeated at the end of the year. The BCS mayhem would be delicious.

So, on to the Longhorns, who are in legitimate danger of actually not making a bowl game this year. Yup, the preseason #5 or so team may not become bowl eligible. Why? Their remaining 4 games are at Kansas State, then three home games against Oklahoma State, Florida Atlantic (easy win) and arch-rival Texas A&M. They have to at least beat one of those other three to become bowl eligible. Lucky for them they didn’t pad their schedule with any FCS teams or they would have to win 3 more games not 2 more to become bowl eligible. This ironically coming off a loss to a Baylor team who is bowl eligible for the first time in, well, since I can remember in my lifetime. It would be quite a season if neither Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas and USC do not make bowl games, which is looking to be the case. (USC started the season ineligible.)

Does anyone want to win the ACC this year? I mean, Virginia Tech is pretty much saying “Ok guys, if you want to give it to us that is fine but we aren’t going to try and win it or anything. Just give it to us and that is cool.” Seriously. Florida State and Miami are pretty much out of the running. North Carolina State only plays Clemson, Wake Forest, North Carolina and then the season closer against Maryland…which very well may decide who plays for the ACC championship. Maryland also only has one loss. However, Maryland still has Miami and Florida State to get by. But at the rate they are playing, it might be 9-2 North Carolina State vs. 9-2 Maryland at the end of the year for the right to play Virginia Tech in the conference championship game.

The Big East isn’t looking much better. I guess Pitt will take this one, unless they drop two games and Syracuse continues to win. Now here’s a crazy thought- Big East champion Syracuse battling ACC champion Maryland in the Orange Bowl. I bet a WNBA regular season game gets better ratings. Still, the Orange playing in the Orange bowl has a nice ring to it. My money is on Pitt vs. Virginia Tech, but since my predictions are about as reliable as a 1995 Ford Taurus, I wouldn’t take that to the bank.

Notre Dame decided on the heels of Brian Kelly claiming a bowl invite is all important that they don’t actually want a bowl invite. At least that’s the only logical conclusion I can see of NOT kicking the easy field goal for the easy win. No, let’s throw to the end zone for no apparent reason. Hey Coach Kelly, not sure if anyone told you, but if you win by 2 or you win by 6 it still goes in the W column.

The Big Ten is now headed for mayhem. There are 4 teams with one loss, and two of them play each other still, Ohio State and Iowa. If Iowa wins that game, you will have three one loss teams tied atop the Big Ten. That’s if the others win out. What is the tie breaker rule in this conference? Highest ranked BCS team? That might go to Michigan State then, since Iowa has two losses and they gave Wisconsin their only loss. That would be interesting. If Oregon wins out we could see Arizona vs. Michigan State in the Rose Bowl. Has that ever even happened before? My guess is no. But this season gives us a first for everything.

Here’s an interesting tidbit: Boise State has beaten Virginia Tech and Oregon State, and still has games against 5-2 Fresno State, 7-2 Hawaii and 7-1 Nevada. Who said they have no strength of schedule? They are playing a harder schedule than anyone in the Big East or ACC. Now here is what I want to know. According to computers, who has a harder schedule? Compare these two. Let’s say at the end of the year these are the records of the 12 teams beaten by two different schools. Assume no team was played by both:


11-1
10-2
9-3
8-4
7-5
6-6
6-6
5-7
4-8
3-9
2-10
1-11


6-6
6-6
6-6
6-6
6-6
6-6
6-6
6-6
6-6
6-6
6-6
6-6

Now both opponents total 72 wins, right? So who get’s the edge in the computers? I only ask because now let’s look at Boise State’s schedule on the left and Oregon’s on the right. Here’s the current record of everyone on their schedule:


6-2
2-7
4-3
1-7
6-3
2-7
3-5
7-2
4-4
5-2
7-2
2-6 49


0-8
2-6
2-6 (FCS)
4-4
7-1
1-8
3-5
5-3
3-5
4-4
7-1
4-3

That’s 49 wins for teams against Boise State and 42 wins for teams against Oregon, including an FCS team. Now this doesn’t live up to the example per se, but Oregon gets Stanford, Arizona, USC and Oregon State as marquee games and essentially no one else. Boise State gets Virginia Tech, Oregon State, Nevada, Hawaii and essentially no one else. So does Oregon playing some great teams and then bad ones equal to Boise State playing some pretty good teams, some bad ones, and some mediocre ones? Simple math says Boise has a harder schedule as of right now- their opponents have won more games. Period.

I guess we’ll wait for the rankings to come out and see. All I know is right now we desperately need Auburn and Oregon to lose to someone so that all havoc can be released on the BCS.

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