New predictive computer analysis coming this Fall

I know this is a college football blog, but I have an exciting announcement regarding the NFL. You see, two years ago I created a computer algorithm that was designed to rank college football teams. All the other computer formulas are totally bogus, so I came up with something of my own. Here’s the catch: to generate a ranking, I needed a way of creating an expected outcome for each game. Then I would measure the actual outcome against the expected outcome and see if they disappointed or exceeded expectations. Ironically, my method for creating an expectation turned out to pretty accurately predict the outcomes of each game.

So this Fall, instead of doing computer rankings, I’m going to do computer predictions. However, they will be for the NFL. Here’s why: I have a full time job. There are 120 teams in the FBS. Some play games against FCS teams you have to account for. There is a lot to go through. But the NFL only has 32 teams. Much easier to manage. So I’m going to do a test run with NFL scores and if it works well I will develop an application to automatically calculate it for college football.

So stay tuned this Fall. I will continue to post our college football predictions, but each week before the NFL games start I will post my computer predictions for the scores of each game. Then we’ll see how I do. If it is good I will roll it out for college football as it will cost me a bit to get it developed. Who knows, might even try it for basketball too. Either way, you’ll see the predictions here first, so watch for them and we’ll see if this thing works or crashes and burns.

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