Initial BCS Rankings Prediction

What can be said about this weekend? Chaos has finally begun! I love it! Let’s look at how what happened should impact rankings.

The BCS rankings come out today, and I’m not necessarily going to predict them so much as tell you what they should be. And here’s what the rankings should look like.

1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Florida State
5. Clemson
7. Missouri
8. Louisville
9. LSU
10. Texas A&M
11. Stanford
12. Miami
13. Baylor
14. South Carolina
15. Georgia
16. Oklahoma
17. Texas Tech
18. Oklahoma State
19. Michigan
20. Washington
21. Wisconsin
22. Fresno State
23. Nebraska
24. Northern Illinois
25. Oregon State

If I had a ballot, that’s how I would fill mine out. But what about the BCS rankings? Here’s how I think they will actually look:

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Clemson
4. Florida State
5. Ohio State
6. LSU
7. Texas A&M
9. Missouri
10. South Carolina
11. Stanford
12. Louisville
13. Miami
14. Baylor
15. Georgia
16. Oklahoma
17. Oklahoma State
18. Texas Tech
19. Fresno State
20. Michigan
21. Nebraska
22. Virginia Tech
23. Washington
24. Wisconsin
25. Michigan State

Louisville is dropping because of their bad computer ratings. Same as Ohio State. I think Missouri will surge in both the polls and computer rankings into the top ten by doing what LSU and South Carolina could not…go to Georgia and win. Stanford won’t fall too far with the Utah loss, and I don’t think Georgia, Oklahoma or Michigan falls off too much either.

As for a BCS buster, Fresno State has the inside track because they beat Rutgers. Northern Illinois hasn’t beaten any body and Ball State might be the only team on their schedule this year. Remember you have to finish ahead of a conference champion from a qualifying conference and in the top 12 to play in a BCS game. So Fresno State will not finish ahead of the champion from the SEC, Pac-12 or ACC, that’s a given. Depending on how the Big Ten shakes out that one is possible but unlikely. Louisville will cruise to an undefeated season with their soft schedule. The Big 12 is Fresno’s only chance. Assuming they beat each other up, they might be able to squeeze in. So far so good on that front. If there are no undefeated or one loss teams from the conference, Fresno State is definitely in the BCS if they go undefeated.

But if I had to make a guess right now, here’s how I would see things turning out:

Championship: Oregon vs Ohio State
Rose Bowl: UCLA vs Fresno State
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs LSU
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Clemson
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Louisville

This looks to be the path we’re on, but that’s why we play the games, to see how it actually turns out. Let’s hope upcoming weekends are as exciting as this one was.